Paid Social Briefing: What affected your ads in September and what’s coming in October 2026?
Katherine’s thoughts
September felt like a return to normal; the heatwaves vanished, children returned to school and paid social became more predictable, with more settled results throughout the month and the usual payday spikes.
Sadly, as we returned to normal, near the end of the month, political and financial uncertainty also returned and although not affecting September, this, in addition to FOBO (fear of a better offer) we might find October sluggish from a paid social point of view, as audiences wait for the latest interest rates news, The Budget and, of course, to see what offers they might be able to get in the famous November Black Friday sales.
Despite this, I’m looking forward to October and am quietly excited about some key cultural moments, which will hopefully start Q4 the right way.
If you don’t know what romantasy is, you will by the end of October as ACOTAR book 6 is scheduled for release on 27th October. This global phenomenon will have a massive effect on both organic and paid social, with related content expected to dominate, BookTok to take over TikTok and potentially increasing costs in ads auction.
The growth of romantasy has had an unexpected effect on a range of sectors, from fitness to luxury, not just books and merchandise.
The audience is increasing spending in luxury items and experiences from 5* reading retreats and weekend getaways. But, it has also triggered more women to invest in exercise classes, strength building and anything to help them claim their power.
From the release of Threshing Day in September, we have already seen the signals and we know ACOTAR will be bigger, so if your audience is reading romantasy, think about how you can utilise this.
For those who aren’t fae or dragon fans, we have Halloween, which also coincides with half term in the UK and payday, making it a perfect selling opportunity, but could also trigger increases in the ads auction and costs. For those hosting events and targeting parents, sell early and embrace FOMO messaging.
The month in review: September 2026
Economy & Cost of Living
- Inflation edged up to 3.1%. August CPI rose from 2.9%, driven by petrol at 161.3p a litre, which continues to rise and is the highest since November 2022, while food inflation held at 1.3%.
So what for paid social: Fuel-led price worries can dampen discretionary spend, so lean on value, reliability and local convenience in your messaging. - The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%. The 17 September decision was a 6–3 vote, with three members preferring a rise to 4.0% as energy costs feed through.
So what for paid social: Borrowing costs aren’t falling any time soon, so expect cautious big-ticket and B2B purchasing and longer consideration windows. - Confidence improved, but households are saving. GfK consumer confidence rose to -13 (its third monthly gain) while the savings index jumped and the major purchase index slipped; August retail sales volumes rose 0.5%, with online at 28.8% of sales.
So what for paid social: Shoppers are still buying, but carefully, so favour clear offers and proof of value over premium or impulse-led creative.
News & Politics
- Budget nerves cast a shadow. Labour’s conference in Liverpool (27–30 September) put the 28 October Budget firmly in the headlines.
So what for paid social: Uncertainty about tax and spending tends to delay business decisions, so keep B2B calls to action low-commitment (guides, demos, consultations).
Cultural & Social Moments
- Bake Off returned with a new judge. Series 17 began on Channel 4 on 22 September, with Nigella Lawson joining Paul Hollywood.
So what for paid social: Cosy, comfort-led “autumn at home” content is culturally in step, so consider timely, food-and-hosting flavoured creative for suitable businesses. If you are selling anything baking-related, now is your time to engage, shine and sell, inspiring home bakers to take to their ovens. - Threshing Day by Rebecca Yarros was released on the 29th September. Starting what could be known as Romantasy season
So what for paid social: This book caused a definite skew over launch as it became a key focus on BookTok and across other organic social. We saw an increase in audiences looking to train like a dragon rider and embrace their own power, triggering an unexpected surge in fitness and strength. If empowering women or fitness is your area, there is still time to embrace this trend.
Things to watch: October 2026
Economy & Cost of Living
- Energy bills rise on 1 October. The Ofgem price cap goes up 4% to £1,723 for a typical household (gas up around 8%), partly softened by VAT coming off domestic electricity.
So what for paid social: Household budgets tighten just as Q4 spend ramps up, so test cost-saving and “worth every penny” angles and keep an eye on conversion rates. - Three big economic dates land in a week. Labour market data on 20 October, September CPI on 21 October and the Autumn Budget on 28 October; the next Bank of England decision follows on 5 November.
So what for paid social: Sentiment can swing quickly around these dates, so avoid launching major new campaigns on Budget day itself and review results the following week.
Cultural & Social Moments
- Half-term and Halloween. Schools in England and Wales break from 26 to 30 October, and Halloween falls on Saturday 31 October, with World Mental Health Day on 10 October.
So what for paid social: Family days out, hospitality and experiences see a lift, so schedule offers and reminders to reach parents in the fortnight before half-term. - The next ACOTAR book lands on 27 October. Sarah J. Maas’s A Court of Splintered Harmony (Bloomsbury) is due on the 27th, with A Court of Forgotten Melody to follow on 12 January 2027.
So what for paid social: Expect a surge of romantasy and BookTok chatter and busier feeds for the weeks surrounding the launch, so bookish, gifting, romantic, luxury and female empowerment businesses can ride the moment, while others should expect higher competition for attention.
Seasonality & Planning
- Q4 costs are already climbing. Clocks go back on 25 October, and Black Friday (27 November) deals typically start from mid-November, with CPMs usually rising from September and peaking in November.
So what for paid social: Pre-test your Q4 creative and audiences now while costs are lower, then scale only what is proven once November competition peaks. - Beware of FOBO. The fear of a better offer is real, especially ahead of Q4, as consumers worry about making purchasing decisions too soon.
So what for paid social: Campaigns can feel sluggish as consumers wait to see what else is coming, so don’t be afraid to communicate what might be coming later in Q4 and what audiences should purchase now. Also consider using this as your final chance to bring in new audiences: spark desire now, sell in November.
